A lot has been said about the stars of this election. Here are my views on how some things are very certain and some things are just up in the air.
First the certainties:
BJP/NDA good news:
1. Gujarat: Mr. Narendra Modi will continue to do very well. Look for the BJP to take 19 to 21 Lok Sabha seats.
2. Madhya Pradesh: Shivraj Singh Chauhan -- the quiet man completely the antithesis to Mr. Modi but surprisingly effective anyway. Look for the BJP to do about 23 to 24 Lok Sabha seats from M.P
3. Chattisgarh: Raman Singh has been an extremely effective Chief Minister. Coupled with the unsavoury memories of Ajit Jogi and the BJP should be on course to repeat last time's 10 seats.
4. Jharkhand: Look for sweep like conditions for the NDA in Jharkhand with the opposition completely fragmented. Lalu/Paswan and the Congress/JMM fighting separately will ensure a sweep for the NDA. Look for 12 out of 14 seats to the NDA from Jharkhand.
5. Bihar: Definitely Nitish Kumar is the dominant figure in Bihar politics today. Lalu plus Paswan together could get reduced to single digits. The question then will become: what is the guarantee that Nitish will continue in the NDA ? Interesting question that only time will answer but Lalu will cease to be a big player at the centre after this election.
BJP/NDA Hoping to do well but will they ??
1. Punjab: The Jarnail Singh "shoeing" incident has inflamed Sikh sentiment against the Congress. Matched against this however is the anti incumbency against the Badal government. Punjab has a history of alternating voter preferences. Will this be the Congress's turn or will the rising Sikh anger get the Akali/BJP over the top ? This is a state with finely balanced electoral math and a small swing will make a big difference. Right at the top of my "must watch" list.
2. Haryana: Again a fascinating state for different reasons. The alliance between Chautala and the BJP puts the NDA in a good position here. Coupled with this is the avoidable melodrama with Bhajan Lal son and his marriage/ conversion peccadilloes. On the other side of the equation is the Congress party's generally strong standing in Haryana and the relatively good governance of Hooda, the Chief Minister. Again, too close to call.
3. Karnataka: How well will the BJP do ? How well does it need to do to beat expectations ? Last time, the BJP won 18 out of 28 seats. The problem with the BJP in Karnataka is that it is not present in several parts of the state (particularly in the old Mysore region). The party is practically out of the contest in 8 out of 28 seats. For the party to do better than last time, it needs to virtually run the table. However, on the positive side, it is difficult to visualize the party doing worse than about 14 seats in the state. Final prediction -- pick a number between 14 and 18 for the BJP in Karnataka. This will mean the BJP will actually get FEWER seats here than it got last time. The Janata Dal and the Congress will share the rest of the seats among them with the Congress getting a couple more than the JD-S
4. Uttar Pradesh: The big daddy of them all. There have been persistent reports about the fading of the communal equation as a factor. This has given rise to hopes in the BJP that Muslims will not resort to tactical voting as in the past and this will get several more BJP candidates past the post. The voting percentages last time were about 27, 26 and 23 for the 3 main parties in UP with the BJP bringing up the rear but the seats won do not reflect this voting percentage because of Muslim tactical voting.
I think if the BJP is looking for a major improvement this election, then somebody in the party is out smoking something ! The bright side is there is virtually no downside from the previous result and the party could do about 15 to 16 seats, up from its previous tally.
BJP/NDA fighting to stay in position/contain losses:
1. Maharashtra: NDA will take losses in Vidharba, neutralize the same partially in the rest of Maharashtra and end with about 3 to 4 seats FEWER than last time. This seems to me to be the most likely result.
2. Rajasthan: Ashok Gehlot looking strong. The BJP will probably struggle to reach double digits in this state. Congress 16 to 18 and BJP 7 to 9 appear to be likely as far as the seats from here are concerned.
3. Delhi: Again not looking good for the BJP. They will consider themselves lucky to get 2 seats here. The upside ? They had only one last time !!!
For the populous states in the rest of the country, the NDA practically does not exist at all (with the exception of Assam). Ironically, the best gain opportunities for the UPA side are in states where it is in direct competition with the Left/ Third Front NOT the NDA
UPA CERTAIN TO MAKE GAINS:
1. Kerala: Sweep like conditions likely this time. I will be very surprised if the UDF in Kerala does not beat 16 out of 20 seats. A much deserved rout for the Left looks in the making
2. West Bengal: All possibilities in West Bengal reflect only an upside potential for the Congress-TMC. The question is -- how many seats does this translate into ? The best guess is probably 14 to 15 seats, which in the context of West Bengal would be a tectonic shift.
3. Rajasthan: Already discussed under the NDA
4. Orissa: The split of the BJP-BJD alliance will definitely help the Congress. Upside is probably limited. The gain in seats could be 4 to 5 seats here.
UPA LOOKING TO HOLD:
1. Maharashtra: Already discussed under NDA
UPA HUGE LOSSES EXPECTED WITH GAINS TO THIRD FRONT:
Whether Dr. Manmohan Singh gets to continue as Prime Minister depends totally on the results of 2 Southern states -- Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu
1. Andhra Pradesh: The results in Andhra Pradesh need to be looked at region wise. In Telengana, the so called GA (Grand alliance led by the TDP) definitely appears to be ahead. In Telengana, the Praja Rajyam is practically non-existent and it appears to be a straight fight between the Congress and the GA. Look for major losses for the Congress in this region.
Rayalseema on the other hand will see a very good Congress performance. The Congress will expect to practically sweep Rayalseema. That leaves the crucial coastal Andhra which has almost 20 seats. Most of these are 3 cornered fights with the Congress, GA and the Praja Rajyam fighting it out.
A master stroke by Chief Minister YSR is to exploit the election calendar by waiting for the Telengana phase to end before taking on the Telengana secessionist TRS. He is now trying to exploit this issue before the next phase. How successful will this be ? How much will Praja Rajyam poll ? Whose votes will they take ? These are the questions whose answers will determine how many seats the Congress takes in coastal Andhra.
The UPA HAS to lose seats in Andhra. The question is : how many. If the seat loss can be contained to the single digit, the Congress will have to feel it has dodged a major bullet here. My own prediction. The UPA will get approx 20 to 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh out of a total of 42 here.
2. Tamilnadu: The great imponderable. Jayalalithaa has the math. Does she also have the vote ? If this were an Assembly election, I would have said the answer is obviously yes. BUT, this is a parliamentarly election. The Tamilnadu electorate is fickle. Memories of 1980 come to mind when the Congress-DMK alliance swept the Parliamentary elections and MGR triumphantly returned to power just 3 months later in the Assembly polls. Will this election be like 1996 and
2004 which witnessed sweep like conditions or will this be more like the 1998 and 1999 elections
which witnessed a 70:30 seat division ratio ?
My own prediction is that this will be a 70:30 election. There is frankly no major anti incumbency wave which supplemented the alliance math in 1996 and 2004. The all important question is WHO will be the 70 percent and who will be the 30 percent. Even this question is not as obvious as it seems at first sight.
The UPA should consider itself distincly lucky if it pulls off 20 seats in Tamilnadu. This will mean a MINIMUM loss of 20 seats here.
FINAL SUM UP:
It will be a very close thing between the BJP and the Congress for the largest single party position and between the truncated UPA and the truncated NDA for the largest single pre-poll alliance.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
WHO KILLED THE ELECTION EXCITEMENT ?
With India on the verge of electing the 15th Lok Sabha, will anyone enlighten me on just what these elections are all about ?
To my mind, these have been one of the most insipid contests in memory. If I were to identify four factors that have conspired to take all the excitement out of Election 2009, they would be:
First, the Election Commission's poll schedule which has to rank right up there in the absurdity list. Dragging voting out over a period of a month ensures that the electoral contest ceases to have a "national" air to it. Memories are short, but I distinctly recall that the 1991 election, for instance, was completed in just 3 phases. Have law and order, infrastructure and managerial abilities improved over these 18 years or have they deteriorated ? At that time, the election commission had only one Chief Commissioner. We now have 3 worthies manning the commission (even if some of the members of the commission seem to spend more time in taking pot shots at each other than doing the nation's work !). What does this say about the state of the country as a whole ? Are things moving to a point where the elections would need to be spread out over 10 sessions lasting 60 days within a decade or so ?
Second, the so called "model code of conduct" framed by the Election Commission has taken on so rigid a shape that this, coupled with the inordinately long election cycle, results in a suspension of all governance for several weeks. Being pulled up by the Election Commission for a breach of the "model code" has become so routine that all that this news now elicits from the general public is one collective yawn.
Third, Issues have totally vanished from political discourse today. Every election is about personalities AND issues but in this election, I don't recall any issue of substance being raised by any party.
Fourth, there is an overwhelming feeling in this country now that it doesn't matter. Why ? For two reasons.
(a) With the collapse of issue based campaigning, it is now just a matter of personalities. And who really knows whether the personalities you are voting for today will continue to be aligned to the same personalities they are aligned with today ?
(b) This election would appear to be about collecting seats as a first step. Who forms the government would depend on the wheeling and dealing that go on AFTER the votes are counted and the winners announced.
For those of us who remember the years when we sat up breathlessly into the wee hours of the night to know who won and who lost, keep remembering those years. We aint gonna see those years again !!
To my mind, these have been one of the most insipid contests in memory. If I were to identify four factors that have conspired to take all the excitement out of Election 2009, they would be:
First, the Election Commission's poll schedule which has to rank right up there in the absurdity list. Dragging voting out over a period of a month ensures that the electoral contest ceases to have a "national" air to it. Memories are short, but I distinctly recall that the 1991 election, for instance, was completed in just 3 phases. Have law and order, infrastructure and managerial abilities improved over these 18 years or have they deteriorated ? At that time, the election commission had only one Chief Commissioner. We now have 3 worthies manning the commission (even if some of the members of the commission seem to spend more time in taking pot shots at each other than doing the nation's work !). What does this say about the state of the country as a whole ? Are things moving to a point where the elections would need to be spread out over 10 sessions lasting 60 days within a decade or so ?
Second, the so called "model code of conduct" framed by the Election Commission has taken on so rigid a shape that this, coupled with the inordinately long election cycle, results in a suspension of all governance for several weeks. Being pulled up by the Election Commission for a breach of the "model code" has become so routine that all that this news now elicits from the general public is one collective yawn.
Third, Issues have totally vanished from political discourse today. Every election is about personalities AND issues but in this election, I don't recall any issue of substance being raised by any party.
Fourth, there is an overwhelming feeling in this country now that it doesn't matter. Why ? For two reasons.
(a) With the collapse of issue based campaigning, it is now just a matter of personalities. And who really knows whether the personalities you are voting for today will continue to be aligned to the same personalities they are aligned with today ?
(b) This election would appear to be about collecting seats as a first step. Who forms the government would depend on the wheeling and dealing that go on AFTER the votes are counted and the winners announced.
For those of us who remember the years when we sat up breathlessly into the wee hours of the night to know who won and who lost, keep remembering those years. We aint gonna see those years again !!