How do you take the matches away from a pyromaniac without getting burnt ?

A clear and present danger confronts the entire civilized world as Pakistan pushes the limits of acceptable behavior as far as possible. Marketing itself as the western world’s last hope to keep Islamic fundamentalism at bay, Pakistan has been steadily using the vast quantities of money and armaments flowing its way to quietly fund forces which make no secret of their desire to rain destruction on its neighbor India and US interests in the region and beyond.

Restraining factors:

Two major factors have persuaded India, the US and the civilized world as a whole to stay their hand for the moment instead of taking firm and decisive action that will force behavioral modification on Pakistan

The war being fought on Pakistan’s western frontier with a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan and the necessity of Pakistan’s cooperation to manage the supply logistics in getting vital equipment and provisions to US and NATO forces in Afghanistan
The ever present sub-text of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon status which is now being used openly (and quite shamelessly) as a lever of blackmail to silence proponents of vigorous action

How valid are these fears ?

Alternative access routes need to be built now to support the Afghan effort. Already there have been news reports detailing US efforts to develop an alternative supply route to Afghanistan landing sea supplies at Baku, Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea and then transporting the goods through Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan to the Afghan border. For goods that can be brought in by air, air field access is being negotiated with Kyrgyzstan. These efforts come not a day too soon. Pakistan’s cooperation with the “War on Terror” is likely to come to a screeching halt during 2009 as its military plays up tensions with India and shifts focus to its eastern border with India.

The nuclear weapon question although appearing complex, is not really so for many reasons:

There is persuasive evidence that these weapons are in the control of the highest echelons of the Pakistan army, and whatever the other faults of this organization, the command and control structures in place ensure that the odds of rogue elements in the country getting their hands on these weapons stay miniscule.
The Pakistan army is certainly not willing to risk obliteration of their country by actually using these weapons in any conflict or in a theater of war EXCEPT where their use is the only way left to prevent complete and total destruction of their country. Short of this extreme eventuality, Pakistan will not use these weapons, no matter how much saber rattling goes on about these at the moment.

A critical factor to be considered is to take actions against Pakistan which achieve target objectives without completely alienating the people of Pakistan. The objectives are several:

--Pakistan to hand over wanted extremists for trial to India and to the US for actions against these countries. There are several individuals wanted by India. As for the US, the revelations that the butchers of Daniel Pearl were released by Islamabad recently make it very clear about just what cooperation can be expected from the present Pakistan regime.

--The terror infrastructure in Pakistan (training camps, ISI involvement in motivation, funding and training etc) to be shut down and shut down for good.

THREE POSSIBLE SETS OF ACTIONS come to mind, each one of them grounded in a historical example

1. THE NAVAL BLOCKADE OPTION: Kennedy’s successful use of this tactic to get the Soviet missiles removed from Cuba immediately positions this tactic as an extremely effective one.

Let us be clear:
-- Pakistan’s navy is not its strongest point
-- It is overly dependent on the resources of Karachi port and the geographical disadvantages apparent to any person who browses the atlas will make it clear that the navy of say, India, with cooperation from the US military can completely and totally shut down Pakistan’s shipping.

2. THE MUNICH OPTION: Tightly targeted “kill” teams comprising teams from India, Israel and the US to enter Pakistan covertly with a “kill list” of key terrorism players. This option has the advantages of covert action deniability and with the availability of adequate intelligence stands a good chance for success.

3. THE HELMS-BURTON OPTION: Pakistan’s economy stands on the precipice of a very slippery and steep slope. Given the huge external dependence of Pakistan, it is entirely possible to implement a targeted economic pogrom against Islamabad that will consist of the following:

-- Ask leading countries and corporations around the world to in essence choose between New Delhi and Islamabad. India should make it clear that repercussions will follow to any country or corporation that chooses to buy from and sell to Islamabad.
-- The repercussions will take the form of reduced access to the much larger Indian market and in a country like India where Government being well disposed to a company is still vital to its business prospects, the effects can be pretty dramatic.

Good options all. Now how about some action ?