Recently a friend asked me to pen a brief history of the Dravidian movement in this blog. After thinking over how to start, I decided I could do no better than to copy George Lucas in his Star Wars sequence. I will therefore devote 3 separate blogs to the 80s 90s and the 21st century to date respectively and will then go back to a "prequel" encompassing the period prior to the 80s.
The Lok Sabha Elections of 1980:
India went to the polls in 1980 to elect a new Lok Sabha. At the centre, a resurgent Congress (I) with Indira Gandhi at the helm was seeking to regain power. Facing them was a ragtag grouping. The once mighty Janata Party had split. Charan Singh's Lok Dal (comprising his original BLD faction and most of the erstwhile Socialist Party) was contesting the election separately from the rump Janata Party which essentially consisted of the erstwhile Jan Sangh and the Congress (O).
In 1980, M.G. Ramachandran was a figure regarded with great suspicion by Indira Gandhi. She had never quite forgiven him for letting her down in the Thanjavur by-election a couple of years earlier due to pressure from Morarji Desai. The period also coincided with the ascent in the Tamilnadu Congress of G.K. Moopanar, a power broker extraordinaire who right through his political career was perceived to be closer to Karunanidhi than to M.G.R. Moopanar's influence on Indira Gandhi led her to tie up with the DMK for the election. The AIADMK tied up with the Janata Party (practically non-existent in Tamilnadu).
Indira Gandhi stormed back to power. In Tamilnadu, the DMK-Congress (I) alliance did spectacularly well winning 37 out of the 39 seats on offer. Fresh from this victory, Moopanar prevailed on Indira Gandhi to dissolve the state assembly on the specious charge of corruption. Fresh elections were announced.
The backlash:
MGR's first government (from 1977 to 1980) was ironically comparitively clean by Tamilnadu standards. The dismissal of his government on the charge of corruption could hardly stand the test of credibility given the public's memory of the rampant corruption during the earlier Karunanidhi era.
The DMK and Congress approached the 1980 assembly elections with a supreme overconfidence that emerged from the Lok Sabha elections held barely 3 months earlier. The results were a devastating rebuff for the overconfident allies. MGR was swept back to power with a large majority. Karunanidhi himself actually had a major scare in his Anna Nagar seat barely squeaking through by a narrow margin of approximately 800 votes against Dr H.V Hande who then became a minister in the MGR government.
The second MGR Government:
Having been sacked for corruption after leading a comparitively clean government during his first innings, MGR gradually moved closer to the Congress which was only to happy to hitch its wagon to the winning horse. He consciously decided to cultivate the image of a "man of the people". The reality was rather debatable but the image decidedly stuck. The introduction of the noon-meal scheme in the state was a signal achievement of MGR's that forever consolidated his pro-poor image amongst the people.
Again, thanks to the earlier clean administration, people did not seem to be ready to believe MGR to be capable of corruption although by all accounts his second term in office quickly broke new marks in the corruption index. It was said during this period that he covered his tracks by asking all favour seekers to first meet Karunanidhi, then the opposition leader, and pay him money first. He would then demand from them about 4 times the amount that Karunanidhi demanded ! He thus ensured that the DMK would never raise any corruption charges in a credible way.
Along with the pro-poor image and the corruption came increasing evidence of high-handedness and thuggery. The police were given a free-hand (too free a hand according to a number of critics). The press was bludgeoned into submission (sometimes literally). A photo-journalist who dared to take a photograph of MGR when he had removed his trademark dark glasses to clean them was pursued, thrashed black and blue and his camera film confiscated).
Dark years for the DMK:
During the 1980 to 1984 period, the DMK had to fight for its very survival. By the time 1984 came around, the party had been out of power for almost a decade. Karunanidhi was widely perceived to be aging rapidly and the dominance of MGR in the political scene in the state was so total (especially in the South and West which were the AIADMK's traditional bastions), that the very survival of the DMK as an entity seemed to be in doubt.
To Karunanidhi's credit, the DMK held on to a base vote share of 35 % right through the period. In fact, the DMK was actually getting ready to make a credible run for power in 1984 when all calculations were suddenly upended by two security guards in New Delhi
The Indira Gandhi Assassination and its impact in Tamilnadu:
In the aftermath of Operation Blue Star and the tremendous resentment created in the Sikh community as a result, two Sikh guards assassinated the then Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi in 1984, when the country was weeks away from a Lok Sabha election.
The result of the election was a historic Congress sweep, born out of the assassination and the pro-Rajiv Gandhi wave that followed. The AIADMK, now in allliance with the Congress, swept both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections that were held simultaneously.
The MGR Third Term (1984 to 1987):
MGR's health, never robust at the best of times, deteriorated sharply to the point where he suffered a series of strokes and became virtually confined to bed in a comatose state. The AIADMK became a party virtually split down the middle. The leading faction was led by MGR's close associate, R.M. Veerappan and the other faction was led by MGR's former film leading lady, Jayalalitha.
The two factions had already started jockeying for power a while earlier. Things reached such a pass that when the City transport buses in Chennai introduced an express service called the "V" service, pro-Jayalalitha ministers in the state Government forced the hapless chairman of the corporation to introduce a similar express service called the "J" service !
While MGR was lying comatose in hospital, powerful ministers belonging to the Veerappan faction are alleged to have forged his signature on important documents, files and government communiques. One of the most bizarre episodes in this period was a letter alleged to be signed by MGR sacking S. Thirunavukkarasu, one of the pro-Jayalalitha ministers in the cabinet when it was common knowledge that MGR at the time was probably incapable of even recognizing people, let alone deciding who to appoint or fire !
With MGR lying in hospital, the Moopanar group in the state Congress again made a calculation that it would be in the Congress interest to encourage a split in the AIADMK and attempt to return to power. Moopanar's arithmetic (which he was to get right many years later only) was fatally flawed but none of the players then realized the dire consequences of the games that the Congress played during this period.
Death of MGR:
MGR finally died in 1987 and Tamilnadu went berserk. Chennai was totally ravaged by mobs that smashed everything which was within reach and breakable. Virtually every traffic signal in the city was smashed by the mob. A group of AIADMK workers demolished the Karunanidhi statue on Mount Road, Chennai.
Desperate to project herself as MGR's real heir, Jayalalitha forced her way on to MGR's funeral cortege. Sensationally, she was physically thrown out of the cortege by a film actor, Deepan, then considered to be close to R.M. Veerappan. MGR was interred alongside the samadhi of Anna on beach road in Chennai and an era had come to an end.
(To be continued in Part 2)
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Sunday, May 17, 2009
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BJP BUTTON !!
For those who watched the movie "The curious case of Benjamin Button", one particularly poignant moment was when Benjamin and his girlfriend were approximately the same age but heading in opposite chronological directions, Benjamin getting younger by the day and his girlfriend of course aging conventionally.
Is there a parallel to the BJP and Congress numbers in this election especially when you compare these numbers with the situation that prevailed after the 1991 Lok Sabha election ?
After the 1991 elections, the BJP had practically the exact same number of Lok Sabha MPs that it will now have in 2009. The Congress will also have almost the exact same number it had in 1991. The dynamics though appear very different this time. The BJP, waxing then is waning today. The Congress performance dynamic appears to be just the opposite with the party gaining strength.
Is there a parallel to the BJP and Congress numbers in this election especially when you compare these numbers with the situation that prevailed after the 1991 Lok Sabha election ?
After the 1991 elections, the BJP had practically the exact same number of Lok Sabha MPs that it will now have in 2009. The Congress will also have almost the exact same number it had in 1991. The dynamics though appear very different this time. The BJP, waxing then is waning today. The Congress performance dynamic appears to be just the opposite with the party gaining strength.
EK, DO, PAUNE THEEN (PAANCH SAAL BAAD !)
Among the several pundits who got it wrong in the 2004 general election was Mr. M.J. Akbar. Writing in the "Asian Age", Mr. Akbar had famously given his prediction article a banner headline "Ek Do Paune Theen". He had said then that the Congress would be around a 100 seats, the BJP itself around 200 seats and the NDA circa 275.
How the wheel has turned ! Mr. Akbar's headline is grimly prophetic. Of course, it now reflects the results of the 2009 elections and the parties holding the numbers he predicted have now reversed. It is now BJP barely above the 100 mark, the Congress by itself crossing 200 and the UPA practically at 275 !!
How the wheel has turned ! Mr. Akbar's headline is grimly prophetic. Of course, it now reflects the results of the 2009 elections and the parties holding the numbers he predicted have now reversed. It is now BJP barely above the 100 mark, the Congress by itself crossing 200 and the UPA practically at 275 !!
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
The Tamilnadu Number Game
A lot has been said about how the AIADMK front enjoys a tremendous popular vote advantage due to its arithmetical advantage. The question arises however, as to how real this arithmetical advantage is, and to what extent mere arithmetic can predict election results.
The base vote shares of various parties as far as can be ascertained both from the results of previous elections as well as from a landmark survey carried out for "The Hindu" by CSDS are roughly as follows:
For the AIADMK Alliance:
AIADMK: 29 %
PMK: 6 %
MDMK: 2 %
CPI/CPM: 3 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 40 %
For the DMK Alliance:
DMK: 29 %
Congress: 9 %
VCK: 0.5 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 38.50 %
OTHER PARTIES:
DMDK (VIJAYAKANTH): 8 %
BJP: 3 %
OTHERS: 1 %
FLOATING VOTES: 9.5 % APPROX
As can be seen from this arithmetical proposition, the two fronts are not very far apart on the BASE level of arithmetical support. Two huge caveats are in place here:
(a) Contrary to (outside Tamilnadu) opinion, these vote shares are not uniform across the state. The PMK for instance, is principally concentrated in the northern districts. If we consider this impact on the prospects of the two fronts, it is quite clear that the AIADMK alliance will have a significant arithmetic edge in the northern districts while the DMK alliance will be quite competitive in the South.
(b) Given that there is only a 1.5 % difference in the base vote between the two alliances, the impact of the swinging vote is extremely important. How will this vote swing ? There are 2 factors to consider here:
1. The swing vote could swing towards either alliance OR to Vijaykanth's DMDK. Could the DMDK pull in a significant portion of this swing vote ?
2. Is there significant anti-incumbency in Tamilnadu ? My gut opinion is NO.
It is tremendously tempting to hedge bets in Tamilnadu. My own opinion is that the AIADMK is now ahead thanks to inept campaigning by the DMK alliance, Rahul Gandhi's verbal gaffes etc. I see the AIADMK range as between 25 to 35 with the DMK staying between 5 to 15.
The base vote shares of various parties as far as can be ascertained both from the results of previous elections as well as from a landmark survey carried out for "The Hindu" by CSDS are roughly as follows:
For the AIADMK Alliance:
AIADMK: 29 %
PMK: 6 %
MDMK: 2 %
CPI/CPM: 3 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 40 %
For the DMK Alliance:
DMK: 29 %
Congress: 9 %
VCK: 0.5 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 38.50 %
OTHER PARTIES:
DMDK (VIJAYAKANTH): 8 %
BJP: 3 %
OTHERS: 1 %
FLOATING VOTES: 9.5 % APPROX
As can be seen from this arithmetical proposition, the two fronts are not very far apart on the BASE level of arithmetical support. Two huge caveats are in place here:
(a) Contrary to (outside Tamilnadu) opinion, these vote shares are not uniform across the state. The PMK for instance, is principally concentrated in the northern districts. If we consider this impact on the prospects of the two fronts, it is quite clear that the AIADMK alliance will have a significant arithmetic edge in the northern districts while the DMK alliance will be quite competitive in the South.
(b) Given that there is only a 1.5 % difference in the base vote between the two alliances, the impact of the swinging vote is extremely important. How will this vote swing ? There are 2 factors to consider here:
1. The swing vote could swing towards either alliance OR to Vijaykanth's DMDK. Could the DMDK pull in a significant portion of this swing vote ?
2. Is there significant anti-incumbency in Tamilnadu ? My gut opinion is NO.
It is tremendously tempting to hedge bets in Tamilnadu. My own opinion is that the AIADMK is now ahead thanks to inept campaigning by the DMK alliance, Rahul Gandhi's verbal gaffes etc. I see the AIADMK range as between 25 to 35 with the DMK staying between 5 to 15.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
SOME QUESTION MARKS MAY HAVE BECOME FULLSTOPS !
Some updates on my earlier predictions on some states where voting is coming up:
1. PUNJAB: I had earlier hedged my bets on this state. I am now revising my prediloctions to Congress: 10 and BJP/SAD: 3. The Sikh riots issue appears to have fizzled out and the Congress is definitely ahead at this point.
2. HARYANA: Another good news state for the Congress (and they certainly can use all the good news they get !!). The INLD in particular seems to be losing ground and the alliance with the BJP does not seem to be really working. Look for the Congress to take as many as 8 seats in Haryana and for the BJP/INLD to be restricted to just 2.
3. RAJASTHAN: Reiterate my earlier prediction with an advantage to the Congress. The upside variance will however, surprisingly, favour the Congress here thanks to a strong selection of candidates. Look for the Congress to score at the upper end of the range I predicted last blog.
4. WEST BENGAL: Look for the Rahul factor to dampen the Congress-Trinamul vote during the next 2 phases. I think the Congress-Trinamul may see its gains pared to maybe 10 to 11 seats, disappointing considering the potential gains they could have made this time.
5. TAMILNADU: I had earlier said that this would be a 70:30 election in Tamilnadu. With the major Rahul Gandhi self inflicted fiasco, look for this to be a virtual sweep by Jayalalithaa. A further update on this crucial state on the eve of polling but it is probably too late for the broken pieces of the DMK-Congress alliance to be put back together before polling day.
For 2 decades, the winner in Tamilnadu has decided the contours of government in New Delhi. Today, the BJP can raise a glass in quiet celebration. As for the Congress, what can one say ? The fat lady may not have started singing. But she has stepped up to the mike and started clearing her throat.
1. PUNJAB: I had earlier hedged my bets on this state. I am now revising my prediloctions to Congress: 10 and BJP/SAD: 3. The Sikh riots issue appears to have fizzled out and the Congress is definitely ahead at this point.
2. HARYANA: Another good news state for the Congress (and they certainly can use all the good news they get !!). The INLD in particular seems to be losing ground and the alliance with the BJP does not seem to be really working. Look for the Congress to take as many as 8 seats in Haryana and for the BJP/INLD to be restricted to just 2.
3. RAJASTHAN: Reiterate my earlier prediction with an advantage to the Congress. The upside variance will however, surprisingly, favour the Congress here thanks to a strong selection of candidates. Look for the Congress to score at the upper end of the range I predicted last blog.
4. WEST BENGAL: Look for the Rahul factor to dampen the Congress-Trinamul vote during the next 2 phases. I think the Congress-Trinamul may see its gains pared to maybe 10 to 11 seats, disappointing considering the potential gains they could have made this time.
5. TAMILNADU: I had earlier said that this would be a 70:30 election in Tamilnadu. With the major Rahul Gandhi self inflicted fiasco, look for this to be a virtual sweep by Jayalalithaa. A further update on this crucial state on the eve of polling but it is probably too late for the broken pieces of the DMK-Congress alliance to be put back together before polling day.
For 2 decades, the winner in Tamilnadu has decided the contours of government in New Delhi. Today, the BJP can raise a glass in quiet celebration. As for the Congress, what can one say ? The fat lady may not have started singing. But she has stepped up to the mike and started clearing her throat.
IS RAHUL GANDHI CONSUMED BY A POLITICAL DEATH WISH ?
Is Rahul Gandhi secretly batting for L.K Advani ? The very notion sounds preposterous. Yet what can one make of the singularly bizarre way in which he has antagonised virtually every single ally of the Congress.
It is one thing to antagonize allies in states that have already voted or practically completed voting. Irritating Lalu and Paswan by speculating about Nitish Kumar is one thing (although in bad taste). Vitiating the atmosphere in West Bengal where the Congress-Trinamul combine was hoping to make major gains by trying to cozy up to the left is just plain stupid. But for sheer unprecedented imbecility, trying to extend feelers to Jayalalithaa when the Tamilnadu election is still a week away takes the cake.
This is the equivalent of a soccer player putting the ball into his own net in the midst of a tense world cup game. It is now essentially "game over" for the Congress-DMK alliance. Today, Sonia Gandhi has cancelled her rallies in Tamilnadu and DMK cadres have decided to stop working for Congress candidates in the elections.
The DMK-Congress camp was already battling with its back to the wall in the face of the superior electoral mathematics of the AIADMK coalition. The one factor, the only one, going for this combine in Tamilnadu was the feeling among large segments of the population that India's progress depended on a strong national government, one that a motley collection of parties called the "third front" could not possibly provide.
Now what exactly has Rahul Gandhi achieved ?
(a) He has single-handedly demolished the importance of the national factor. Now a voter intending to vote for the AIADMK can rationalize his or her vote as equal to a vote for the Congress (when in fact it isn't !!!)
(b) He has put the Congress in the humiliating position of being snubbed by Jayalalithaa in public and left the Congress rank and file demoralized and running for cover
(c) He has now ensured the defeat of every single Congress nominee in Tamilnadu including Mr. Chidambaram and Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar.
(d) With the disastrous results now guaranteed in Tamilnadu and probably for the remaining phases in West Bengal, he has virtually done his very best to ensure that the BJP becomes the largest single party and the NDA becomes the largest single pre-poll allliance.
And this is the man who some were calling the future Prime Minister of India. God help India !!
Get ready to hail Prime Minister Advani. And don't forget when that happens the one man who made it all possible -- Rahul Gandhi.
It is one thing to antagonize allies in states that have already voted or practically completed voting. Irritating Lalu and Paswan by speculating about Nitish Kumar is one thing (although in bad taste). Vitiating the atmosphere in West Bengal where the Congress-Trinamul combine was hoping to make major gains by trying to cozy up to the left is just plain stupid. But for sheer unprecedented imbecility, trying to extend feelers to Jayalalithaa when the Tamilnadu election is still a week away takes the cake.
This is the equivalent of a soccer player putting the ball into his own net in the midst of a tense world cup game. It is now essentially "game over" for the Congress-DMK alliance. Today, Sonia Gandhi has cancelled her rallies in Tamilnadu and DMK cadres have decided to stop working for Congress candidates in the elections.
The DMK-Congress camp was already battling with its back to the wall in the face of the superior electoral mathematics of the AIADMK coalition. The one factor, the only one, going for this combine in Tamilnadu was the feeling among large segments of the population that India's progress depended on a strong national government, one that a motley collection of parties called the "third front" could not possibly provide.
Now what exactly has Rahul Gandhi achieved ?
(a) He has single-handedly demolished the importance of the national factor. Now a voter intending to vote for the AIADMK can rationalize his or her vote as equal to a vote for the Congress (when in fact it isn't !!!)
(b) He has put the Congress in the humiliating position of being snubbed by Jayalalithaa in public and left the Congress rank and file demoralized and running for cover
(c) He has now ensured the defeat of every single Congress nominee in Tamilnadu including Mr. Chidambaram and Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar.
(d) With the disastrous results now guaranteed in Tamilnadu and probably for the remaining phases in West Bengal, he has virtually done his very best to ensure that the BJP becomes the largest single party and the NDA becomes the largest single pre-poll allliance.
And this is the man who some were calling the future Prime Minister of India. God help India !!
Get ready to hail Prime Minister Advani. And don't forget when that happens the one man who made it all possible -- Rahul Gandhi.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
RISING, FALLING AND QUESTION MARKS
A lot has been said about the stars of this election. Here are my views on how some things are very certain and some things are just up in the air.
First the certainties:
BJP/NDA good news:
1. Gujarat: Mr. Narendra Modi will continue to do very well. Look for the BJP to take 19 to 21 Lok Sabha seats.
2. Madhya Pradesh: Shivraj Singh Chauhan -- the quiet man completely the antithesis to Mr. Modi but surprisingly effective anyway. Look for the BJP to do about 23 to 24 Lok Sabha seats from M.P
3. Chattisgarh: Raman Singh has been an extremely effective Chief Minister. Coupled with the unsavoury memories of Ajit Jogi and the BJP should be on course to repeat last time's 10 seats.
4. Jharkhand: Look for sweep like conditions for the NDA in Jharkhand with the opposition completely fragmented. Lalu/Paswan and the Congress/JMM fighting separately will ensure a sweep for the NDA. Look for 12 out of 14 seats to the NDA from Jharkhand.
5. Bihar: Definitely Nitish Kumar is the dominant figure in Bihar politics today. Lalu plus Paswan together could get reduced to single digits. The question then will become: what is the guarantee that Nitish will continue in the NDA ? Interesting question that only time will answer but Lalu will cease to be a big player at the centre after this election.
BJP/NDA Hoping to do well but will they ??
1. Punjab: The Jarnail Singh "shoeing" incident has inflamed Sikh sentiment against the Congress. Matched against this however is the anti incumbency against the Badal government. Punjab has a history of alternating voter preferences. Will this be the Congress's turn or will the rising Sikh anger get the Akali/BJP over the top ? This is a state with finely balanced electoral math and a small swing will make a big difference. Right at the top of my "must watch" list.
2. Haryana: Again a fascinating state for different reasons. The alliance between Chautala and the BJP puts the NDA in a good position here. Coupled with this is the avoidable melodrama with Bhajan Lal son and his marriage/ conversion peccadilloes. On the other side of the equation is the Congress party's generally strong standing in Haryana and the relatively good governance of Hooda, the Chief Minister. Again, too close to call.
3. Karnataka: How well will the BJP do ? How well does it need to do to beat expectations ? Last time, the BJP won 18 out of 28 seats. The problem with the BJP in Karnataka is that it is not present in several parts of the state (particularly in the old Mysore region). The party is practically out of the contest in 8 out of 28 seats. For the party to do better than last time, it needs to virtually run the table. However, on the positive side, it is difficult to visualize the party doing worse than about 14 seats in the state. Final prediction -- pick a number between 14 and 18 for the BJP in Karnataka. This will mean the BJP will actually get FEWER seats here than it got last time. The Janata Dal and the Congress will share the rest of the seats among them with the Congress getting a couple more than the JD-S
4. Uttar Pradesh: The big daddy of them all. There have been persistent reports about the fading of the communal equation as a factor. This has given rise to hopes in the BJP that Muslims will not resort to tactical voting as in the past and this will get several more BJP candidates past the post. The voting percentages last time were about 27, 26 and 23 for the 3 main parties in UP with the BJP bringing up the rear but the seats won do not reflect this voting percentage because of Muslim tactical voting.
I think if the BJP is looking for a major improvement this election, then somebody in the party is out smoking something ! The bright side is there is virtually no downside from the previous result and the party could do about 15 to 16 seats, up from its previous tally.
BJP/NDA fighting to stay in position/contain losses:
1. Maharashtra: NDA will take losses in Vidharba, neutralize the same partially in the rest of Maharashtra and end with about 3 to 4 seats FEWER than last time. This seems to me to be the most likely result.
2. Rajasthan: Ashok Gehlot looking strong. The BJP will probably struggle to reach double digits in this state. Congress 16 to 18 and BJP 7 to 9 appear to be likely as far as the seats from here are concerned.
3. Delhi: Again not looking good for the BJP. They will consider themselves lucky to get 2 seats here. The upside ? They had only one last time !!!
For the populous states in the rest of the country, the NDA practically does not exist at all (with the exception of Assam). Ironically, the best gain opportunities for the UPA side are in states where it is in direct competition with the Left/ Third Front NOT the NDA
UPA CERTAIN TO MAKE GAINS:
1. Kerala: Sweep like conditions likely this time. I will be very surprised if the UDF in Kerala does not beat 16 out of 20 seats. A much deserved rout for the Left looks in the making
2. West Bengal: All possibilities in West Bengal reflect only an upside potential for the Congress-TMC. The question is -- how many seats does this translate into ? The best guess is probably 14 to 15 seats, which in the context of West Bengal would be a tectonic shift.
3. Rajasthan: Already discussed under the NDA
4. Orissa: The split of the BJP-BJD alliance will definitely help the Congress. Upside is probably limited. The gain in seats could be 4 to 5 seats here.
UPA LOOKING TO HOLD:
1. Maharashtra: Already discussed under NDA
UPA HUGE LOSSES EXPECTED WITH GAINS TO THIRD FRONT:
Whether Dr. Manmohan Singh gets to continue as Prime Minister depends totally on the results of 2 Southern states -- Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu
1. Andhra Pradesh: The results in Andhra Pradesh need to be looked at region wise. In Telengana, the so called GA (Grand alliance led by the TDP) definitely appears to be ahead. In Telengana, the Praja Rajyam is practically non-existent and it appears to be a straight fight between the Congress and the GA. Look for major losses for the Congress in this region.
Rayalseema on the other hand will see a very good Congress performance. The Congress will expect to practically sweep Rayalseema. That leaves the crucial coastal Andhra which has almost 20 seats. Most of these are 3 cornered fights with the Congress, GA and the Praja Rajyam fighting it out.
A master stroke by Chief Minister YSR is to exploit the election calendar by waiting for the Telengana phase to end before taking on the Telengana secessionist TRS. He is now trying to exploit this issue before the next phase. How successful will this be ? How much will Praja Rajyam poll ? Whose votes will they take ? These are the questions whose answers will determine how many seats the Congress takes in coastal Andhra.
The UPA HAS to lose seats in Andhra. The question is : how many. If the seat loss can be contained to the single digit, the Congress will have to feel it has dodged a major bullet here. My own prediction. The UPA will get approx 20 to 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh out of a total of 42 here.
2. Tamilnadu: The great imponderable. Jayalalithaa has the math. Does she also have the vote ? If this were an Assembly election, I would have said the answer is obviously yes. BUT, this is a parliamentarly election. The Tamilnadu electorate is fickle. Memories of 1980 come to mind when the Congress-DMK alliance swept the Parliamentary elections and MGR triumphantly returned to power just 3 months later in the Assembly polls. Will this election be like 1996 and
2004 which witnessed sweep like conditions or will this be more like the 1998 and 1999 elections
which witnessed a 70:30 seat division ratio ?
My own prediction is that this will be a 70:30 election. There is frankly no major anti incumbency wave which supplemented the alliance math in 1996 and 2004. The all important question is WHO will be the 70 percent and who will be the 30 percent. Even this question is not as obvious as it seems at first sight.
The UPA should consider itself distincly lucky if it pulls off 20 seats in Tamilnadu. This will mean a MINIMUM loss of 20 seats here.
FINAL SUM UP:
It will be a very close thing between the BJP and the Congress for the largest single party position and between the truncated UPA and the truncated NDA for the largest single pre-poll alliance.
First the certainties:
BJP/NDA good news:
1. Gujarat: Mr. Narendra Modi will continue to do very well. Look for the BJP to take 19 to 21 Lok Sabha seats.
2. Madhya Pradesh: Shivraj Singh Chauhan -- the quiet man completely the antithesis to Mr. Modi but surprisingly effective anyway. Look for the BJP to do about 23 to 24 Lok Sabha seats from M.P
3. Chattisgarh: Raman Singh has been an extremely effective Chief Minister. Coupled with the unsavoury memories of Ajit Jogi and the BJP should be on course to repeat last time's 10 seats.
4. Jharkhand: Look for sweep like conditions for the NDA in Jharkhand with the opposition completely fragmented. Lalu/Paswan and the Congress/JMM fighting separately will ensure a sweep for the NDA. Look for 12 out of 14 seats to the NDA from Jharkhand.
5. Bihar: Definitely Nitish Kumar is the dominant figure in Bihar politics today. Lalu plus Paswan together could get reduced to single digits. The question then will become: what is the guarantee that Nitish will continue in the NDA ? Interesting question that only time will answer but Lalu will cease to be a big player at the centre after this election.
BJP/NDA Hoping to do well but will they ??
1. Punjab: The Jarnail Singh "shoeing" incident has inflamed Sikh sentiment against the Congress. Matched against this however is the anti incumbency against the Badal government. Punjab has a history of alternating voter preferences. Will this be the Congress's turn or will the rising Sikh anger get the Akali/BJP over the top ? This is a state with finely balanced electoral math and a small swing will make a big difference. Right at the top of my "must watch" list.
2. Haryana: Again a fascinating state for different reasons. The alliance between Chautala and the BJP puts the NDA in a good position here. Coupled with this is the avoidable melodrama with Bhajan Lal son and his marriage/ conversion peccadilloes. On the other side of the equation is the Congress party's generally strong standing in Haryana and the relatively good governance of Hooda, the Chief Minister. Again, too close to call.
3. Karnataka: How well will the BJP do ? How well does it need to do to beat expectations ? Last time, the BJP won 18 out of 28 seats. The problem with the BJP in Karnataka is that it is not present in several parts of the state (particularly in the old Mysore region). The party is practically out of the contest in 8 out of 28 seats. For the party to do better than last time, it needs to virtually run the table. However, on the positive side, it is difficult to visualize the party doing worse than about 14 seats in the state. Final prediction -- pick a number between 14 and 18 for the BJP in Karnataka. This will mean the BJP will actually get FEWER seats here than it got last time. The Janata Dal and the Congress will share the rest of the seats among them with the Congress getting a couple more than the JD-S
4. Uttar Pradesh: The big daddy of them all. There have been persistent reports about the fading of the communal equation as a factor. This has given rise to hopes in the BJP that Muslims will not resort to tactical voting as in the past and this will get several more BJP candidates past the post. The voting percentages last time were about 27, 26 and 23 for the 3 main parties in UP with the BJP bringing up the rear but the seats won do not reflect this voting percentage because of Muslim tactical voting.
I think if the BJP is looking for a major improvement this election, then somebody in the party is out smoking something ! The bright side is there is virtually no downside from the previous result and the party could do about 15 to 16 seats, up from its previous tally.
BJP/NDA fighting to stay in position/contain losses:
1. Maharashtra: NDA will take losses in Vidharba, neutralize the same partially in the rest of Maharashtra and end with about 3 to 4 seats FEWER than last time. This seems to me to be the most likely result.
2. Rajasthan: Ashok Gehlot looking strong. The BJP will probably struggle to reach double digits in this state. Congress 16 to 18 and BJP 7 to 9 appear to be likely as far as the seats from here are concerned.
3. Delhi: Again not looking good for the BJP. They will consider themselves lucky to get 2 seats here. The upside ? They had only one last time !!!
For the populous states in the rest of the country, the NDA practically does not exist at all (with the exception of Assam). Ironically, the best gain opportunities for the UPA side are in states where it is in direct competition with the Left/ Third Front NOT the NDA
UPA CERTAIN TO MAKE GAINS:
1. Kerala: Sweep like conditions likely this time. I will be very surprised if the UDF in Kerala does not beat 16 out of 20 seats. A much deserved rout for the Left looks in the making
2. West Bengal: All possibilities in West Bengal reflect only an upside potential for the Congress-TMC. The question is -- how many seats does this translate into ? The best guess is probably 14 to 15 seats, which in the context of West Bengal would be a tectonic shift.
3. Rajasthan: Already discussed under the NDA
4. Orissa: The split of the BJP-BJD alliance will definitely help the Congress. Upside is probably limited. The gain in seats could be 4 to 5 seats here.
UPA LOOKING TO HOLD:
1. Maharashtra: Already discussed under NDA
UPA HUGE LOSSES EXPECTED WITH GAINS TO THIRD FRONT:
Whether Dr. Manmohan Singh gets to continue as Prime Minister depends totally on the results of 2 Southern states -- Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu
1. Andhra Pradesh: The results in Andhra Pradesh need to be looked at region wise. In Telengana, the so called GA (Grand alliance led by the TDP) definitely appears to be ahead. In Telengana, the Praja Rajyam is practically non-existent and it appears to be a straight fight between the Congress and the GA. Look for major losses for the Congress in this region.
Rayalseema on the other hand will see a very good Congress performance. The Congress will expect to practically sweep Rayalseema. That leaves the crucial coastal Andhra which has almost 20 seats. Most of these are 3 cornered fights with the Congress, GA and the Praja Rajyam fighting it out.
A master stroke by Chief Minister YSR is to exploit the election calendar by waiting for the Telengana phase to end before taking on the Telengana secessionist TRS. He is now trying to exploit this issue before the next phase. How successful will this be ? How much will Praja Rajyam poll ? Whose votes will they take ? These are the questions whose answers will determine how many seats the Congress takes in coastal Andhra.
The UPA HAS to lose seats in Andhra. The question is : how many. If the seat loss can be contained to the single digit, the Congress will have to feel it has dodged a major bullet here. My own prediction. The UPA will get approx 20 to 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh out of a total of 42 here.
2. Tamilnadu: The great imponderable. Jayalalithaa has the math. Does she also have the vote ? If this were an Assembly election, I would have said the answer is obviously yes. BUT, this is a parliamentarly election. The Tamilnadu electorate is fickle. Memories of 1980 come to mind when the Congress-DMK alliance swept the Parliamentary elections and MGR triumphantly returned to power just 3 months later in the Assembly polls. Will this election be like 1996 and
2004 which witnessed sweep like conditions or will this be more like the 1998 and 1999 elections
which witnessed a 70:30 seat division ratio ?
My own prediction is that this will be a 70:30 election. There is frankly no major anti incumbency wave which supplemented the alliance math in 1996 and 2004. The all important question is WHO will be the 70 percent and who will be the 30 percent. Even this question is not as obvious as it seems at first sight.
The UPA should consider itself distincly lucky if it pulls off 20 seats in Tamilnadu. This will mean a MINIMUM loss of 20 seats here.
FINAL SUM UP:
It will be a very close thing between the BJP and the Congress for the largest single party position and between the truncated UPA and the truncated NDA for the largest single pre-poll alliance.
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