For those who watched the movie "The curious case of Benjamin Button", one particularly poignant moment was when Benjamin and his girlfriend were approximately the same age but heading in opposite chronological directions, Benjamin getting younger by the day and his girlfriend of course aging conventionally.
Is there a parallel to the BJP and Congress numbers in this election especially when you compare these numbers with the situation that prevailed after the 1991 Lok Sabha election ?
After the 1991 elections, the BJP had practically the exact same number of Lok Sabha MPs that it will now have in 2009. The Congress will also have almost the exact same number it had in 1991. The dynamics though appear very different this time. The BJP, waxing then is waning today. The Congress performance dynamic appears to be just the opposite with the party gaining strength.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
EK, DO, PAUNE THEEN (PAANCH SAAL BAAD !)
Among the several pundits who got it wrong in the 2004 general election was Mr. M.J. Akbar. Writing in the "Asian Age", Mr. Akbar had famously given his prediction article a banner headline "Ek Do Paune Theen". He had said then that the Congress would be around a 100 seats, the BJP itself around 200 seats and the NDA circa 275.
How the wheel has turned ! Mr. Akbar's headline is grimly prophetic. Of course, it now reflects the results of the 2009 elections and the parties holding the numbers he predicted have now reversed. It is now BJP barely above the 100 mark, the Congress by itself crossing 200 and the UPA practically at 275 !!
How the wheel has turned ! Mr. Akbar's headline is grimly prophetic. Of course, it now reflects the results of the 2009 elections and the parties holding the numbers he predicted have now reversed. It is now BJP barely above the 100 mark, the Congress by itself crossing 200 and the UPA practically at 275 !!
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
The Tamilnadu Number Game
A lot has been said about how the AIADMK front enjoys a tremendous popular vote advantage due to its arithmetical advantage. The question arises however, as to how real this arithmetical advantage is, and to what extent mere arithmetic can predict election results.
The base vote shares of various parties as far as can be ascertained both from the results of previous elections as well as from a landmark survey carried out for "The Hindu" by CSDS are roughly as follows:
For the AIADMK Alliance:
AIADMK: 29 %
PMK: 6 %
MDMK: 2 %
CPI/CPM: 3 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 40 %
For the DMK Alliance:
DMK: 29 %
Congress: 9 %
VCK: 0.5 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 38.50 %
OTHER PARTIES:
DMDK (VIJAYAKANTH): 8 %
BJP: 3 %
OTHERS: 1 %
FLOATING VOTES: 9.5 % APPROX
As can be seen from this arithmetical proposition, the two fronts are not very far apart on the BASE level of arithmetical support. Two huge caveats are in place here:
(a) Contrary to (outside Tamilnadu) opinion, these vote shares are not uniform across the state. The PMK for instance, is principally concentrated in the northern districts. If we consider this impact on the prospects of the two fronts, it is quite clear that the AIADMK alliance will have a significant arithmetic edge in the northern districts while the DMK alliance will be quite competitive in the South.
(b) Given that there is only a 1.5 % difference in the base vote between the two alliances, the impact of the swinging vote is extremely important. How will this vote swing ? There are 2 factors to consider here:
1. The swing vote could swing towards either alliance OR to Vijaykanth's DMDK. Could the DMDK pull in a significant portion of this swing vote ?
2. Is there significant anti-incumbency in Tamilnadu ? My gut opinion is NO.
It is tremendously tempting to hedge bets in Tamilnadu. My own opinion is that the AIADMK is now ahead thanks to inept campaigning by the DMK alliance, Rahul Gandhi's verbal gaffes etc. I see the AIADMK range as between 25 to 35 with the DMK staying between 5 to 15.
The base vote shares of various parties as far as can be ascertained both from the results of previous elections as well as from a landmark survey carried out for "The Hindu" by CSDS are roughly as follows:
For the AIADMK Alliance:
AIADMK: 29 %
PMK: 6 %
MDMK: 2 %
CPI/CPM: 3 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 40 %
For the DMK Alliance:
DMK: 29 %
Congress: 9 %
VCK: 0.5 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 38.50 %
OTHER PARTIES:
DMDK (VIJAYAKANTH): 8 %
BJP: 3 %
OTHERS: 1 %
FLOATING VOTES: 9.5 % APPROX
As can be seen from this arithmetical proposition, the two fronts are not very far apart on the BASE level of arithmetical support. Two huge caveats are in place here:
(a) Contrary to (outside Tamilnadu) opinion, these vote shares are not uniform across the state. The PMK for instance, is principally concentrated in the northern districts. If we consider this impact on the prospects of the two fronts, it is quite clear that the AIADMK alliance will have a significant arithmetic edge in the northern districts while the DMK alliance will be quite competitive in the South.
(b) Given that there is only a 1.5 % difference in the base vote between the two alliances, the impact of the swinging vote is extremely important. How will this vote swing ? There are 2 factors to consider here:
1. The swing vote could swing towards either alliance OR to Vijaykanth's DMDK. Could the DMDK pull in a significant portion of this swing vote ?
2. Is there significant anti-incumbency in Tamilnadu ? My gut opinion is NO.
It is tremendously tempting to hedge bets in Tamilnadu. My own opinion is that the AIADMK is now ahead thanks to inept campaigning by the DMK alliance, Rahul Gandhi's verbal gaffes etc. I see the AIADMK range as between 25 to 35 with the DMK staying between 5 to 15.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
SOME QUESTION MARKS MAY HAVE BECOME FULLSTOPS !
Some updates on my earlier predictions on some states where voting is coming up:
1. PUNJAB: I had earlier hedged my bets on this state. I am now revising my prediloctions to Congress: 10 and BJP/SAD: 3. The Sikh riots issue appears to have fizzled out and the Congress is definitely ahead at this point.
2. HARYANA: Another good news state for the Congress (and they certainly can use all the good news they get !!). The INLD in particular seems to be losing ground and the alliance with the BJP does not seem to be really working. Look for the Congress to take as many as 8 seats in Haryana and for the BJP/INLD to be restricted to just 2.
3. RAJASTHAN: Reiterate my earlier prediction with an advantage to the Congress. The upside variance will however, surprisingly, favour the Congress here thanks to a strong selection of candidates. Look for the Congress to score at the upper end of the range I predicted last blog.
4. WEST BENGAL: Look for the Rahul factor to dampen the Congress-Trinamul vote during the next 2 phases. I think the Congress-Trinamul may see its gains pared to maybe 10 to 11 seats, disappointing considering the potential gains they could have made this time.
5. TAMILNADU: I had earlier said that this would be a 70:30 election in Tamilnadu. With the major Rahul Gandhi self inflicted fiasco, look for this to be a virtual sweep by Jayalalithaa. A further update on this crucial state on the eve of polling but it is probably too late for the broken pieces of the DMK-Congress alliance to be put back together before polling day.
For 2 decades, the winner in Tamilnadu has decided the contours of government in New Delhi. Today, the BJP can raise a glass in quiet celebration. As for the Congress, what can one say ? The fat lady may not have started singing. But she has stepped up to the mike and started clearing her throat.
1. PUNJAB: I had earlier hedged my bets on this state. I am now revising my prediloctions to Congress: 10 and BJP/SAD: 3. The Sikh riots issue appears to have fizzled out and the Congress is definitely ahead at this point.
2. HARYANA: Another good news state for the Congress (and they certainly can use all the good news they get !!). The INLD in particular seems to be losing ground and the alliance with the BJP does not seem to be really working. Look for the Congress to take as many as 8 seats in Haryana and for the BJP/INLD to be restricted to just 2.
3. RAJASTHAN: Reiterate my earlier prediction with an advantage to the Congress. The upside variance will however, surprisingly, favour the Congress here thanks to a strong selection of candidates. Look for the Congress to score at the upper end of the range I predicted last blog.
4. WEST BENGAL: Look for the Rahul factor to dampen the Congress-Trinamul vote during the next 2 phases. I think the Congress-Trinamul may see its gains pared to maybe 10 to 11 seats, disappointing considering the potential gains they could have made this time.
5. TAMILNADU: I had earlier said that this would be a 70:30 election in Tamilnadu. With the major Rahul Gandhi self inflicted fiasco, look for this to be a virtual sweep by Jayalalithaa. A further update on this crucial state on the eve of polling but it is probably too late for the broken pieces of the DMK-Congress alliance to be put back together before polling day.
For 2 decades, the winner in Tamilnadu has decided the contours of government in New Delhi. Today, the BJP can raise a glass in quiet celebration. As for the Congress, what can one say ? The fat lady may not have started singing. But she has stepped up to the mike and started clearing her throat.
IS RAHUL GANDHI CONSUMED BY A POLITICAL DEATH WISH ?
Is Rahul Gandhi secretly batting for L.K Advani ? The very notion sounds preposterous. Yet what can one make of the singularly bizarre way in which he has antagonised virtually every single ally of the Congress.
It is one thing to antagonize allies in states that have already voted or practically completed voting. Irritating Lalu and Paswan by speculating about Nitish Kumar is one thing (although in bad taste). Vitiating the atmosphere in West Bengal where the Congress-Trinamul combine was hoping to make major gains by trying to cozy up to the left is just plain stupid. But for sheer unprecedented imbecility, trying to extend feelers to Jayalalithaa when the Tamilnadu election is still a week away takes the cake.
This is the equivalent of a soccer player putting the ball into his own net in the midst of a tense world cup game. It is now essentially "game over" for the Congress-DMK alliance. Today, Sonia Gandhi has cancelled her rallies in Tamilnadu and DMK cadres have decided to stop working for Congress candidates in the elections.
The DMK-Congress camp was already battling with its back to the wall in the face of the superior electoral mathematics of the AIADMK coalition. The one factor, the only one, going for this combine in Tamilnadu was the feeling among large segments of the population that India's progress depended on a strong national government, one that a motley collection of parties called the "third front" could not possibly provide.
Now what exactly has Rahul Gandhi achieved ?
(a) He has single-handedly demolished the importance of the national factor. Now a voter intending to vote for the AIADMK can rationalize his or her vote as equal to a vote for the Congress (when in fact it isn't !!!)
(b) He has put the Congress in the humiliating position of being snubbed by Jayalalithaa in public and left the Congress rank and file demoralized and running for cover
(c) He has now ensured the defeat of every single Congress nominee in Tamilnadu including Mr. Chidambaram and Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar.
(d) With the disastrous results now guaranteed in Tamilnadu and probably for the remaining phases in West Bengal, he has virtually done his very best to ensure that the BJP becomes the largest single party and the NDA becomes the largest single pre-poll allliance.
And this is the man who some were calling the future Prime Minister of India. God help India !!
Get ready to hail Prime Minister Advani. And don't forget when that happens the one man who made it all possible -- Rahul Gandhi.
It is one thing to antagonize allies in states that have already voted or practically completed voting. Irritating Lalu and Paswan by speculating about Nitish Kumar is one thing (although in bad taste). Vitiating the atmosphere in West Bengal where the Congress-Trinamul combine was hoping to make major gains by trying to cozy up to the left is just plain stupid. But for sheer unprecedented imbecility, trying to extend feelers to Jayalalithaa when the Tamilnadu election is still a week away takes the cake.
This is the equivalent of a soccer player putting the ball into his own net in the midst of a tense world cup game. It is now essentially "game over" for the Congress-DMK alliance. Today, Sonia Gandhi has cancelled her rallies in Tamilnadu and DMK cadres have decided to stop working for Congress candidates in the elections.
The DMK-Congress camp was already battling with its back to the wall in the face of the superior electoral mathematics of the AIADMK coalition. The one factor, the only one, going for this combine in Tamilnadu was the feeling among large segments of the population that India's progress depended on a strong national government, one that a motley collection of parties called the "third front" could not possibly provide.
Now what exactly has Rahul Gandhi achieved ?
(a) He has single-handedly demolished the importance of the national factor. Now a voter intending to vote for the AIADMK can rationalize his or her vote as equal to a vote for the Congress (when in fact it isn't !!!)
(b) He has put the Congress in the humiliating position of being snubbed by Jayalalithaa in public and left the Congress rank and file demoralized and running for cover
(c) He has now ensured the defeat of every single Congress nominee in Tamilnadu including Mr. Chidambaram and Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar.
(d) With the disastrous results now guaranteed in Tamilnadu and probably for the remaining phases in West Bengal, he has virtually done his very best to ensure that the BJP becomes the largest single party and the NDA becomes the largest single pre-poll allliance.
And this is the man who some were calling the future Prime Minister of India. God help India !!
Get ready to hail Prime Minister Advani. And don't forget when that happens the one man who made it all possible -- Rahul Gandhi.
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