The Tamilnadu Number Game

A lot has been said about how the AIADMK front enjoys a tremendous popular vote advantage due to its arithmetical advantage. The question arises however, as to how real this arithmetical advantage is, and to what extent mere arithmetic can predict election results.

The base vote shares of various parties as far as can be ascertained both from the results of previous elections as well as from a landmark survey carried out for "The Hindu" by CSDS are roughly as follows:

For the AIADMK Alliance:
AIADMK: 29 %
PMK: 6 %
MDMK: 2 %
CPI/CPM: 3 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 40 %

For the DMK Alliance:
DMK: 29 %
Congress: 9 %
VCK: 0.5 %
TOTAL FOR FRONT: 38.50 %

OTHER PARTIES:
DMDK (VIJAYAKANTH): 8 %
BJP: 3 %
OTHERS: 1 %

FLOATING VOTES: 9.5 % APPROX

As can be seen from this arithmetical proposition, the two fronts are not very far apart on the BASE level of arithmetical support. Two huge caveats are in place here:

(a) Contrary to (outside Tamilnadu) opinion, these vote shares are not uniform across the state. The PMK for instance, is principally concentrated in the northern districts. If we consider this impact on the prospects of the two fronts, it is quite clear that the AIADMK alliance will have a significant arithmetic edge in the northern districts while the DMK alliance will be quite competitive in the South.

(b) Given that there is only a 1.5 % difference in the base vote between the two alliances, the impact of the swinging vote is extremely important. How will this vote swing ? There are 2 factors to consider here:
1. The swing vote could swing towards either alliance OR to Vijaykanth's DMDK. Could the DMDK pull in a significant portion of this swing vote ?
2. Is there significant anti-incumbency in Tamilnadu ? My gut opinion is NO.

It is tremendously tempting to hedge bets in Tamilnadu. My own opinion is that the AIADMK is now ahead thanks to inept campaigning by the DMK alliance, Rahul Gandhi's verbal gaffes etc. I see the AIADMK range as between 25 to 35 with the DMK staying between 5 to 15.